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Real Estate Bubble: Fact or Fiction?
The real estate market buzz across the country these days revolves around the anticipated and much feared "bubble". The implication is that once burst, prices will spiral downward taking with them the major assets of those foolish enough to buy at a time when disaster looms large. It could happen. However, it would take a major cataclysm in the underlying financial underpinnings of the global economy. Granted, any significant blow to world confidence in the fundamentals of the U.S. economy could easily check the flow of overseas investment into the long-term securities markets. The result would likely be a sudden spike in mortgage interest rates. This most likely would spell the end of the present bull market in real estate. The profits of doom, meanwhile predict just such a meltdown, citing the trade deficit, the national debt and the debt future generations will owe to Entitlement, to name a few. This too could happen. No one knows for sure. We are in uncharted economic waters, where past experience or interpolations from other countries' issues do not necessarily apply. (see Greenspan's Conundrum: http://www.mises.org/story/1859) But what if it happens? In the worst case scenario, assets such as real estate would be the last resource to vanish-not the first--largely because of widespread laws to prevent foreclosure except in extreme cases. Most likely, we would simply have reached another top in the normal real estate cycle, not unlike any of the 21 cycles that have occurred since 1978. Busts do not usually follow booms. In only 17% of the cycles noted above did a real estate downturn follow on the heals of a boom-and these typically in areas that had experience significant distresses to the local economy. (see FDIC http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/050205fyi.html) Safe Prediction: In the years since I was first licensed as a Realtor� I have experienced all 21 of the full cycles noted above. When I was a new license I too anticipated "The Big One" where the bottom would drop out of the market permanently. Now I know that view is mere paranoia. People are not going to forego living in houses; real property will always have solid value, and the pendulum swings both ways. "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics", as Mark Twain said. Nowhere is this more evident than the real estate market. Statistics that are used to show loss of value mostly show reductions in the number of sales. Let me explain: while the mean average or the medium sales price of all home sold in a given period fairly accurately represent rises in home prices in an seller's market they do not, paradoxically, reflect the apparent drop in prices experienced in buyers market. The unassailable law of Supply and Demand states that as prices rise fewer and fewer people can afford to buy. This creates a market glut. When a glut occurs sellers must contend with greater competition from other sellers. Those that lower their price sell. Those that do not or cannot must stay. (This has yet to happen. see David Lereah of National Association of Realtors: http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/housingoverview?OpenDocument) The result on market statistics, however, is that the dollar amount of those homes that do sell by lowering their price effect a statistical drop in the apparent overall market prices. The news that prices appear to be falling further exasperates the situation as buyers feel the need to protect themselves from the perceived downward trend by only investing in properties that are seen as solid bargains. Again, only those that choose to sell or must sell make up the ever downwards statistical spiral. What is not figured in the averages are the majority of homes that do not sell because their owners are not desperate enough to take what they can get. Their value remains intact. What falls is not value but volume. Especially in today's market where 100% or greater loans are common, few homeowners will choose to bring money to the closing to table to make up the shortfall between what they owe and what they can sell for at that point in the cycle-in essence paying someone to take their home. And though this scenario may cause hardship, it also has the effect of limiting the number of homes on the market, which acts as a downward buffer to the bottom actually falling out, though statistics may even indicate a continued downward trend. If it doesn't stop raining it will be the first time. I tell my buyers to only buy if they feel confident that they can remain in the home at least seven years to ride out (in comfort) the coming down cycle. If, during this time, they are forced to sell (usually because of an employment or domestic issue) they could get hurt. I tell my sellers not to try to predict the exact market top and to watch the rate of foreign investment for signs of weakness that may signal a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy and the rise in home mortgage interest rates that will likely turn the market. No one knows when and if this will occur. But the market will eventually turn. At least it always has. What to do now: Those that buy wisely, and who can choose the point in the natural cycle to sell, are far more likely to make money than in most other forms of investment. All this while enjoying the fruits of homeownership. In addition, they will benefit from major tax advantages and the eventual equity value of their home, which will not always rise astronomically but will always rise in the long run. Dennis Maier
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Lebanon County real estate transactions Lebanon Daily News The following real estate transfers were recorded recently in Lebanon County: Lebanon. Ruth E. Best to Heisey Brothers Properties LLC, 404 S. Lincoln Ave., ... Bankia in talks to sell real-estate, bad loans MarketWatch Bankia SA (BKIA.MC) said Friday that it is in talks to sell a portfolio of real-estate assets and a separate portfolio of nonperforming loans, confirming reports in ... Three Predictions For The Future of Real Estate Tech Forbes Proptech and new customer *service* demands are quickly reshaping the real estate buying and selling processes. Juniper Square raises $25 million to help make it easier to invest in real estate HousingWire Juniper Square, a technology company that helps connect investment firms with private capital to be used to invest in real estate, announced this week that it ... Nine Surprising Real Estate Opportunities That Will Grow In 2019 Forbes Anyone who hopes to succeed in the real estate industry needs to stay up to date on the latest market trends. Whether you're an investor or a broker, you'll have ... IndoSpace closes third logistics real estate fund at $1.2 bln PE Hub IndoSpace, an India-based developer of industrial real estate and warehousing facilities, has closed its third logistics real estate fund at $1.2 billion. The fund will ... Buying a home with parents' help? Consider this advice from a realtor Business Insider Realtor Dana Bull says about half of her millennial clients get financial help from parents to buy their first home. Here's the advice she gives them. High and low real estate transactions listed for Huron County Norwalk Reflector The following real estate transactions represent the highest and lowest amounts recorded in Huron County for the week ending Dec. 7: High: $5863509 - TMC ... The 10 Most Over-The-Top Expensive Celebrity Real Estate Moves Of 2018 Refinery29 As 2018 draws to a close and we look back on the year gone by, one thing that sticks out is how many millions changed hands as celebrities bought, sold, and in ... Survey finds Saratoga County real estate market strong The Daily Gazette MALTA — Economic developers on Thursday assessed the Saratoga County real estate market as strong and optimistic. The Saratoga County Prosperity ... What HNWIs Want from Commercial Real Estate National Real Estate Investor In 2016, 2017 and 2018 NREI conducted research with its audience on high-net-worth investor (HNWI) interest and activity in commercial real estate. In 2018 ... Wilton real estate sales — Dec. 7-13, 2018 The Wilton Bulletin The following real estate transactions were recorded in the office of Town Clerk Lori Kaback from Dec. 7 through Dec. 13, 2018. 39 Cider Mill Place: Michael F. How will the new Apple campus affect Austin real estate? FOX 7 Austin AUSTIN, Texas (FOX 7 Austin) - The new Apple campus in North Austin could have an impact on home prices for the already soaring population the area has ... Recent Commercial Real Estate Transactions The New York Times Recent commercial real estate transactions in New York City. LA among the world’s most expensive cities for real estate Curbed LA While millions of Los Angeles residents struggle to pay for basic needs like food and housing, a handful of wealthy homebuyers are making the urban area one ... Council hearings cement wide-ranging changes for real estate Crain's New York Business Lawmakers approved a major rezoning and a controversial restriction on hotel construction as well as heard testimony on a suite of tenant-focused housing bills. Albany real estate investment lands $5M state grant - Albany Business Review Albany Business Review Redburn Development will receive a $5 million, performance-based capital grant from the state to renovate seven buildings it bought in downtown Albany, Gov. The Pipeline: Commercial real estate deals for 12.14.18 BusinessDen Los Angeles-based Jacobson Co. purchased the 240-unit Velo Apartment Homes complex at 3481 S. Fenton Road in Denver for $46.65 million from San ... Why Tech And Big Money Are Going To Clobber Traditional Real Estate Inman.com A member of a prominent VC firm Andreessen Horowitz believes that big data, big money, and changing consumer preferences will remake the industry. As 2018 real estate market wraps up, buyers and sellers prepare for the year ahead Bothell-Kenmore Reporter The holiday season is typically slow for residential real estate in Bothell and Kenmore, as families tend to go out of town and may not be looking to move in the ... Understanding The Nuances Of The Hotel Real Estate Investment Forbes Understanding the variables associated with operating the business housed in the physical real estate can make or break the return on investment. Investors Are Still Finding Real Estate Opportunities, But Those Are Shifting With The Cycle Bisnow Though fundamentals are still in place, the coming correction is still top of mind for those in the industry as they watch other world economies slow. Kentwood Real Estate Unveils Fresh Look for Iconic Brand Business Wire DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kentwood Real Estate, Colorado's elite luxury brokerage, is stronger than ever from its best-in-class top-producing REALTORS® ... The risk taker: Paul Allen had an profound influence on Seattle real estate Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle) His curiosity was untethered. His ambition was boundless. Paul Allen left an indelible mark on Seattle with a legacy that defies any one label. KBS Real Estate Investment Trust II Increases Valuation of its Common Stock Business Wire KBS Real Estate Investment Trust II announced that its board of directors has approved an estimated net asset value (“NAV”). Predicting The Future Of Real Estate: Transacting In 2025 Forbes Anyone who thinks that real estate transactions are immune to technology and shifting consumer trends may find themselves in a different line of work before ... How the Grinch stole the show in this Baltimore real estate listing Baltimore Sun The Dudley Frank team's latest staged real estate listing photo gallery uses the Grinch to highlight a Hampden rowhome's best assets. Real Estate Real estate transfers: Dec. 3-7 Toledo Blade LUCAS COUNTY 43412 Agricultural South Daniel K Successor Trustee to South Daniel K Successor Trustee, 8590 Corduroy Rd, Curtice, $108350, (12/06) ... Juniper Square lines up $25M for its real estate investment platform TechCrunch Juniper Square, a four-year-old startup at the intersection of enterprise software, real estate and financial technology, has brought in an additional $25 million in ... Real Estate Tricks And Scandals To Look Out For (And To Entertain Your Family This Holiday Season) Forbes Three dozen stick of dynamite was a sneaky way to solve a real estate problem, plus more tales of trickery in this business. 18 Commercial Real Estate Trends To Dominate In 2019 Bisnow Experts anticipate these 18 trends to dominate in the new year. Retiring Tom Seal reflects on swings of real estate market The Herald Bulletin ANDERSON – For the past 46 years, Tom Seal has ridden the roller coaster that has been the real estate market in Madison County. Seal, 74, is retiring from the ... Former startup staffer wired for real estate success Real Estate Weekly Michael Brooks has always kept an eye on innovation. As the top agent for MNS and a driving force behind the sales of more than new 20 condo developments ... Bank of America's move leaves more Wilmington office space empty The News Journal Bank of America will move out of two massive Bracebridge buildings, leaving vacant nearly half a million square feet of office space in Wilmington. Team of Penn State Smeal undergrads wins Maryland real estate case competition Penn State News A team of three undergraduate students from the Penn State Smeal College of Business combined to take first place in the 2018 Colvin Case Study Challenge, ... Metro Pittsburgh Real Estate: Search Properties By Communities Pittsburgh, PA Patch Metro Pittsburgh Real Estate: Houses, Prices - Pittsburgh, PA - Looking for a new house? Just browsing? Either way, you'll find the best properties on the market ... Boston real estate predictions for 2019: Slower sales, higher rents, and development galore Curbed Boston 'Tis the season for prognosticating about what will happen in the new year. Here are four likely trends in Boston-area real estate in 2019. Many Real-Estate Stocks Rebound Barron's After a tough start to 2018, real-estate investment trusts have made a bit of a comeback. The FTSE Nareit Equity REITs index, a broad measure of the industry, ... House Hunting in … Italy The New York Times Milan continues to outpace its Italian neighbors in home prices and sales volume, while the smaller areas in its orbit remain quiet and affordable. Recent East Haven Home Sales | Local Real Estate Guide East Haven, CT Patch Local Real Estate Guide - East Haven, CT - 5 recently sold homes in East Haven, plus homes for sale, foreclosures, local mortgage rate comparison, housing ... Recent Branford Home Sales | Local Real Estate Guide Branford, CT Patch Local Real Estate Guide - Branford, CT - 5 recently sold homes in Branford, plus homes for sale, foreclosures, local mortgage rate comparison, housing data and ... Alexandria Real Estate: 2018 Tailwinds Leading Into the New Year Alexandria Living Magazine Long & Foster Real Estate general brokerage Presidents Gary Scott and Larry “Boomer” Foster hosted a Facebook Live stream yesterday. The executive duo ... Weekly Review: Real Estate CEFs - A Volatile Week For The Sector Seeking Alpha Review of where real estate funds and their benchmarks ended last week. Recap of news related to the group, if any. Comparison of the funds using several ... Strange real estate deal raises specter of Putin buying Trump San Francisco Chronicle In July 2008, Donald Trump undertook one of his most infamous transactions. He sold a mansion in Palm Beach for $95 million to Dmitry Rybolovlev, Russian ... Law Roundup, Neighbors frighten real-estate agent Daily Inter Lake A real-estate agent ran into trouble while attempting to take photos of a property on U.S. 2 in Marion for a client who was selling it. Apparently, neighbors yelled ... JJK blazes social impact real estate development trail Colorado Real Estate Journal JJK Places blazes social impact real estate development trail in Denver. JJK is a Public Benefit Corp. It is believed to be Denver's first RE PBC. RBC Capital Upgrades Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) to Top Pick StreetInsider.com Get instant alerts when news breaks on your stocks. Claim your 2-week free trial to StreetInsider Premium here. RBC Capital analyst Michael Carroll upgraded ... Dec. 8 Real Estate Transactions The Newark Advocate The first name(s) listed is the seller and the second name(s) listed is the buyer. Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner could profit from real estate tax break they pushed Chicago Tribune The Opportunity Zone program promoted by Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner could also benefit them financially, an Associated Press investigation found. How tech and transportation will change real estate AZ Big Media With the many changes we've recently seen in real estate, we started thinking about how the industry will evolve during the next 10, or even 20, years. Below are ... Six Legal Tips For Purchasing Commercial Real Estate Forbes When it comes to commercial real estate, it is of paramount importance that, when you retain legal counsel, they take an in-depth look at all of the nuances that ... Recent Woodbury/Middlebury Home Sales | Local Real Estate Guide Woodbury, CT Patch Local Real Estate Guide - Woodbury-Middlebury, CT - 5 recently sold homes in Woodbury and Middlebury, plus homes for sale, foreclosures, local mortgage ... From the Editor: Real Estate Boom and Bust Columbus Monthly On a Wednesday evening earlier this fall, members of the Upper Arlington Women's Club invited me to lead a robust conversation about real estate sales in ... Three Ways To Position Yourself As A Real Estate Influencer Forbes As millennials accumulate more wealth, real estate professionals must understand how this distinctive segment will approach buying and selling homes. These Trends Will Shape the Real Estate Market in 2019 Realtor.com News Home buyers and sellers are both going to face challenges in 2019, according to an analysis by the realtor.com economic team. Find out what's happening and ... New guidelines on the VAT treatment of supply of commercial real estate in Poland JD Supra On 11 December 2018 the Polish Ministry of Finance published the much-awaited guidelines on the VAT treatment of supply of commercial real estate. Exploring Today's Real Estate Market -- And Its Future Forbes You may have noticed the real estate market tightening and slowing in recent months. Homebuyers are becoming increasingly more cautious due to the feeling ... Real Estate Fresh Finds: Dec. 12 PoPville Real Estate *Fresh* Finds is a weekly selection of newly-listed properties in the District, brought to you by Real Living At Home. Real Estate Transfers For Dec. 6-12 The Chattanoogan NOTICE: The Hamilton County Register's Office did not publish this data. All information in the Register's Office is public information as set out in T.C.A. 10-7-503 ... Brooklyn Real Estate Six Months Later: Two Sold, Two in Contract Brownstoner This week, our look back at four of our featured listings from six months ago spotlights homes in Clinton Hill, Park Slope, Bed Stuy and Crown Heights. NYC’s ‘ultra-prime’ real estate market is booming Curbed NY The downswing of New York's real estate market has been much-documented in the past year: prices are falling, concessions are up, and listings are staying on ... The 2018 Real Estate Advice You'd Better Not Miss | realtor.com® Realtor.com News We doled out a lot of expert real estate advice over the past 12 months. But what was most useful to you? Here are our most-read advice pieces of 2018. Americans Spent $100 Million on Tropical Real Estate. They Were Scammed, FTC Says. The Wall Street Journal The U.S. government's shutdown of what it called a $100 million real-estate investment scam in Belize highlights a growing concern: the targeting of Americans ... Karla Murtaugh Real Estate Market Report: Sale Price, Closed Sales, Under Contract, Days on Market HamletHub November 2018 showed prices and volume of sales holding steady as compared to 2017. The month ended with the number of closed sales at 23 properties, ... Arrest of Huawei Executive Could Hit Vancouver Real Estate Barron's The arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou has many repercussions, but one that investors may not have considered is the effect on the Canadian real estate ... Barbara Corcoran: The key to making a fortune in real estate is finding the next hot neighborhood—here's how CNBC Real estate mogul Barbara Corcoran has made her fortune buying and investing in up-and-coming areas. Here's how she finds the next hot spot. Welcome to the New York housing slump The Real Deal Magazine The long-awaited slump in New York's housing market has arrived. Home prices are heading down in the city itself and in its suburbs, according to Bloomberg. NY-based real estate group plans to revitalize SS United States ship Curbed Philly For over 20 years, the SS United States passenger liner has sat in the Delaware River, as an historic—and too often overlooked—Philly landmark. But a new ... New Plano apartment tower is a hit with empty nesters Dallas News Plano's first high-rise residential building has opened its doors.And the new apartment tower is already more than 40 percent leased.The 25-story... Gwinnett real estate agent to serve prison time for $22M fraud scheme - Atlanta Journal Constitution Gwinnett real estate agent to serve prison time for $22M fraud scheme Atlanta Journal Constitution A Suwanee-based real estate agent will serve more than seven years in prison after defrauding clients to the tune of $22 million,the U.S. Department of Justice ... As Markets Tank, These Real Estate Investment Trusts Hit Higher Highs Forbes Real estate investment trusts -- also known as REIT's -- outperformed the markets by a wide margin last week. As a matter of fact, while many big stocks were ... Five Ways A Busy Professional Can Use Leverage To Become A Real Estate Investor Forbes There is no rule that states you have to wait until the end of your career to be able to retire. Could the arrest of Huawei's CFO affect Vancouver's real estate market? CityNews Vancouver VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – Despite her release on bail, the arrest of Huawei's CFO could have repercussions in Vancouver. Some experts say it likely sent a ... Real estate developer signs on to explore rehabilitation of SS United States PhillyVoice.com The SS United States Conservancy announced this week it's reached an agreement with a real estate developer with an eye toward revitalizing the ocean liner. Real estate briefs Naples Daily News Real estate show: Title company vs. attorney. James D. York P.A., a local Realtor, is the host with Realtors Michael and Morgan York of York Real Estate Group ... William Raveis Real Estate Raises Record $552098 for Innovative Cancer Research Cape Cod Today The William Raveis Charitable Fund (WRCF) surpassed their goal and raised a record $552,098 this year for the Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation ... No brainer? DJ Khaled lists Aventura estate after buying Miami Beach mansion The Real Deal Magazine DJ Khaled's ready to let go of the keys to his waterfront Aventura estate. Is Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust’s (TSE:CRR.UN) ROE Of 7.8% Concerning? Simply Wall St Many investors are still learning about the various metrics that can be useful when analysing a stock. This article is for those who would like to learn about ... 2019 Real Estate Forecast: What Home Buyers, Sellers And Investors Can Expect Forbes The year started with sky-high home prices, historically low mortgage rates and a definitive upper hand for sellers. In recent months, though, things have started ... New Daniel Island mixed-use, waterfront development in the works Charleston Post Courier A Colorado real estate company known for its upscale residential developments will soon start on its next venture in the Lowcountry. New York Touted Real Estate, Eminent Domain in Bid for Amazon The Wall Street Journal In their bid for Amazon.com Inc.'s second headquarters, New York City and state officials dangled prime real estate at the tech giant and offered to use eminent ... Howard Hughes Corp. CEO Weinreb talks Summerlin real estate Las Vegas Review-Journal After the baseball team's new name and logo were unveiled Saturday, Howard Hughes CEO David Weinreb spoke with the Las Vegas Review-Journal about ... |
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