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Real Estate Bubble: Fact or Fiction?
The real estate market buzz across the country these days revolves around the anticipated and much feared "bubble". The implication is that once burst, prices will spiral downward taking with them the major assets of those foolish enough to buy at a time when disaster looms large. It could happen. However, it would take a major cataclysm in the underlying financial underpinnings of the global economy. Granted, any significant blow to world confidence in the fundamentals of the U.S. economy could easily check the flow of overseas investment into the long-term securities markets. The result would likely be a sudden spike in mortgage interest rates. This most likely would spell the end of the present bull market in real estate. The profits of doom, meanwhile predict just such a meltdown, citing the trade deficit, the national debt and the debt future generations will owe to Entitlement, to name a few. This too could happen. No one knows for sure. We are in uncharted economic waters, where past experience or interpolations from other countries' issues do not necessarily apply. (see Greenspan's Conundrum: http://www.mises.org/story/1859) But what if it happens? In the worst case scenario, assets such as real estate would be the last resource to vanish-not the first--largely because of widespread laws to prevent foreclosure except in extreme cases. Most likely, we would simply have reached another top in the normal real estate cycle, not unlike any of the 21 cycles that have occurred since 1978. Busts do not usually follow booms. In only 17% of the cycles noted above did a real estate downturn follow on the heals of a boom-and these typically in areas that had experience significant distresses to the local economy. (see FDIC http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/050205fyi.html) Safe Prediction: In the years since I was first licensed as a Realtor® I have experienced all 21 of the full cycles noted above. When I was a new license I too anticipated "The Big One" where the bottom would drop out of the market permanently. Now I know that view is mere paranoia. People are not going to forego living in houses; real property will always have solid value, and the pendulum swings both ways. "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics", as Mark Twain said. Nowhere is this more evident than the real estate market. Statistics that are used to show loss of value mostly show reductions in the number of sales. Let me explain: while the mean average or the medium sales price of all home sold in a given period fairly accurately represent rises in home prices in an seller's market they do not, paradoxically, reflect the apparent drop in prices experienced in buyers market. The unassailable law of Supply and Demand states that as prices rise fewer and fewer people can afford to buy. This creates a market glut. When a glut occurs sellers must contend with greater competition from other sellers. Those that lower their price sell. Those that do not or cannot must stay. (This has yet to happen. see David Lereah of National Association of Realtors: http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/housingoverview?OpenDocument) The result on market statistics, however, is that the dollar amount of those homes that do sell by lowering their price effect a statistical drop in the apparent overall market prices. The news that prices appear to be falling further exasperates the situation as buyers feel the need to protect themselves from the perceived downward trend by only investing in properties that are seen as solid bargains. Again, only those that choose to sell or must sell make up the ever downwards statistical spiral. What is not figured in the averages are the majority of homes that do not sell because their owners are not desperate enough to take what they can get. Their value remains intact. What falls is not value but volume. Especially in today's market where 100% or greater loans are common, few homeowners will choose to bring money to the closing to table to make up the shortfall between what they owe and what they can sell for at that point in the cycle-in essence paying someone to take their home. And though this scenario may cause hardship, it also has the effect of limiting the number of homes on the market, which acts as a downward buffer to the bottom actually falling out, though statistics may even indicate a continued downward trend. If it doesn't stop raining it will be the first time. I tell my buyers to only buy if they feel confident that they can remain in the home at least seven years to ride out (in comfort) the coming down cycle. If, during this time, they are forced to sell (usually because of an employment or domestic issue) they could get hurt. I tell my sellers not to try to predict the exact market top and to watch the rate of foreign investment for signs of weakness that may signal a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy and the rise in home mortgage interest rates that will likely turn the market. No one knows when and if this will occur. But the market will eventually turn. At least it always has. What to do now: Those that buy wisely, and who can choose the point in the natural cycle to sell, are far more likely to make money than in most other forms of investment. All this while enjoying the fruits of homeownership. In addition, they will benefit from major tax advantages and the eventual equity value of their home, which will not always rise astronomically but will always rise in the long run. Dennis Maier
MORE RESOURCES: Experts predicted Minnesota real estate agents would quit, 5 INVESTIGATES found a different reality 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS Altadena’s rough real estate market: Slower sales, lower prices, lottery winner plucking up properties Los Angeles Times Real estate magazine reports Les Wexner as Blue Heron buyer The Martha's Vineyard Times Real estate expert warns socialist mayoral candidate could trigger massive NYC exodus - Fox Business Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson sets up shop in the Valley, records show The Business Journals Bedrock flexes its real estate portfolio to grow Detroit's tech ecosystem - Crain's Detroit Business Bedrock flexes its real estate portfolio to grow Detroit's tech ecosystem Crain's Detroit Business Office real estate wide open in Denver as vacancy rate hits 36 percent Colorado Public Radio Vail Valley real estate inventory is on the rise VailDaily.com NAR Real Estate Forecast Summit National Association of REALTORS® Real Estate Partners Dollar Tree Let's Talk Business: June residential real estate sales lagging, heritage grants and more Pueblo Chieftain A New Perspective: Here Comes the Groom | Real Estate Insights Piedmont Exedra Boston Real Estate Times Unveils 2025 Excellence Award Winners: Honoring the Visionaries Shaping New England’s Future Boston Real Estate Times Dawson County weekly real estate transactions, July 18 Central Nebraska Today State lawmaker joins Westport commercial real estate brokerage as vice president Hartford Business Journal Bard College hires real estate advisor and broker to sell Simon’s Rock campus - The Berkshire Edge Private Credit Surges in 2025 as Real Estate Developers Bypass Banks The World Property Journal Real estate news: Senior apartments in Tustin sell for $83M; Fullerton Metrocenter snares $118M Orange County Register 5 Essential Tech Tools for Real Estate Agents National Association of REALTORS® New York Housing Market Trends 2025: Is the Tide Turning for Buyers? Norada Real Estate Investments Los Angeles Water & Power commits $100 to real estate debt Pensions & Investments Today’s Mortgage Rates: The States Offering Lowest Rates – July 18, 2025 Norada Real Estate Investments Property management with an owner’s mindset J.P. Morgan Corcoran McEnearney Announces Evan Lacopo to Lead the Number One Real Estate Office in Alexandria, Virginia Alexandria Living Magazine Real Estate Market Report (June) highlandscurrent.org SRS Real Estate Partners Arranges $4.53 Million Ground Lease Sale of Walmart Property in Deltona, FL citybiz Licking County real estate transfers for June 30-July 4 range from $200,000-$14.6 million The Newark Advocate Banner Real Estate Group Breaks Ground on 334-Unit The Faywell Multifamily Development in The Heart MultifamilyBiz Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Declares Dividend Yahoo Finance Moon Becomes Next Real Estate Frontier, NAR Reports Higher Foreign Investment In US Huntsville Business Journal CBRE Announces Strategic Leadership Appointments Across U.S. & Canada Advisory Business Boston Real Estate Times Gravelle advises on current real estate market in Grant County Columbia Basin Herald Frederick Ford, real estate executive and first Black Union League Club president, dies at 98 Chicago Tribune Mapletree Sells Sun Belt Warehouse Portfolio to EQT Real Estate for $241M Commercial Observer Operation Pawssible: Greenbrier Humane Society gets a boost from local real estate company Mountain Messenger GenesisM Breaks Ground on 154,000-Square-Foot Biomanufacturing Facility in Bedford, MA Boston Real Estate Times AGC MA Announces 5th Annual Building Advancement Externship to Bridge Educators with STEM Construction Careers Boston Real Estate Times What's the most expensive property sold in Rhode Island? July 18 real estate transactions The Providence Journal The Pipeline: Commercial real estate roundup for 7.18.25 Richmond BizSense LOCAL REAL ESTATE TODAY 7.18.25 KQEN News Radio Home Buyers: Stop Freaking Out After the Home Inspection National Association of REALTORS® Home Buyers May Have Accepted a New Norm on Rates National Association of REALTORS® Tips on spotting real estate investment opportunities and avoiding risks, from experts at GR Property Group Community Impact SRS Real Estate Negotiates $4.5 Million Sale of Walmart-Anchored Property in Metro Orlando Shopping Center Business Miami-Dade’s self-storage surge a boom for real estate IslanderNews.com Top Stocks for Real Estate Investment Elite AI Stock Forecasts - Massive wealth growth Jammu Links News Hunt Companies Acquires Controlling Interest in Carter, Strengthening Real Estate Development Platform Business Wire Stage Point Europe Launches Its RWA Token $SPET, Setting it up as a Bridge Between Crypto and Real Estate Morningstar July Economist Snapshot: What Will the Big Beautiful Bill Mean for Commercial Real Estate and Housing? Urban Land Magazine New plans unveiled for Water Street’s second phase Tampa Bay Times Vend Leans Into Verticalisation As Real Estate Revenue Grows 11% In Q2 onlinemarketplaces.com Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. a good long term investment - Explosive market performance Jammu Links News Vendor & Real Estate Partners Dollar Tree Development Services Offers Online Early Assistance for Commercial Real Estate Projects Prince William County Government (.gov) Wood County Recorder reports on second quarter real estate activity BG Independent News Real estate sales in Jefferson, Bullitt and Oldham counties for Jan. 2-5, 2025 - The Courier-Journal Real estate sales in Jefferson, Bullitt and Oldham counties for Jan. 2-5, 2025 The Courier-Journal Real Estate Transfers ~ June 25, 2025 The Bedford Citizen Drake Real Estate Partners closes largest fund yet after pivoting to institutions Private Equity Real Estate | PERE Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust 2025 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:PPRQF) Seeking Alpha Real estate transfers: Lake Township condominium complex sells for $5.61 million - Canton Repository Manitowoc's real estate transfers include a sale of nearly $1 million to Riverside Dairy Herald Times Reporter Real estate office transforms into collection center for donations being transported to Kerr County kens5.com |
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