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Real Estate Information |
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The Real Estate Bubble Fallacy
There has been a lot of talk lately about the "Real Estate Bubble", and a lot of folks are asking the question: "When it is going to burst"? They are saying that the market just can't sustain this level of growth and appreciation much longer, and I heat them say that it is inevitable that it must come crashing down soon. People are worried. They don't think it can last; That whatever goes up, must come down. These folks have been conditioned to believe what they believe most likely from the experience of the stock market bubble of 2000, and maybe the 1990's when the real estate market was hit hard in many large metropolitan areas across the country. Its human nature to feel this way. We all know the saying (or the 80's tune for you big hair folks), "Once Bitten, Twice Shy". Or what about, "All good things must come to an end."? Its how we react to almost everything that affects our well being and general safety. Its a subconscious reaction at the gut level. Just like in the stock market, there are bulls and bears. Bulls are typically more optimistic about the market and expect it go up, and bears are generally more pessimistic and expect the market to go down. They will always be there to provide free advice and "expert consulting". Remember though, who you decide to listen to will certainly have an effect on your decision making, and ultimately your success. Well, I'm here to say that there is no real estate bubble! There never was a real estate bubble. Its a complete and utter fallacy. "How can I say that?" you ask. I can say that because the real estate market is in reality, a Wave. Its a cycle, and we just happen to be riding the big swells, or the crest of this long, consistent, and fairly predictable pattern. There is no doubt that real estate has been a rock solid investment for decades, and will continue to be for the foreseeable future and for many reasons that I would like to demonstrate here and now. Because you, as a real estate investor, must be able to move forward with confidence when deciding which projects and properties you want to buy and sell. That is the purpose of my website, www.realestateinvestment.net, to provide you timely information, strategies and techniques to help you succeed. But first, what is a bubble? In terms of economics and markets, the best definition is probably something along the lines of "an isolated or ephemeral situation or condition with little support or substantiation from external conditions". The best example, and the one foremost in the minds of us all, is the stock market tech bubble of 1999 and 2000. We all rushed into the tech stocks and the stock market in general as we saw the .com millionaires being made. Y2K was a big factor in the tech bubble. People were buying new systems at a unprecedented rate in order to prepare for doomsday. People were also buying consumable goods to stock up for the dreadful event that never came. So what was holding up, or supporting the "irrational exuberance" as Alan Greenspan characterized it? Well, we learned soon afterward, not much. It was an isolated, temporary incident that had little support from the other conditions. It was indeed like a bubble that burst. And it has had little support since then. Historically speaking, after the stock market crash of 1929 and 1987, it took decades for the market to recover, although it did eventually recover. Just look at the Dow average and the S&P average for the last hundred years and see the pattern of recovery. You can be sure that a slow steady rise for stocks is in progress. Now back to real estate. Let me explain why this is not a bubble. Real Estate is Cyclic Real estate has had its ups and downs over the years, but it is generally stable, with no drastic swings per se. If you were to look at the cycles on a chart you would see a clear pattern of gently rolling swells. This pattern is consistent across cities and regions all across the United states, although slightly varied in degree. In addition, the cycles tend to favor the ups rather than the downs. It is not uncommon to see large cycles of appreciation and much smaller downward cycles. In other words, the current double-digit growth we've all come to know and love in recent years will likely be followed by downturns of single digit declines. Its like taking two steps forward and one step back. In the big picture you will still be further ahead than when you started. You may see slower growth, but it will still be growth. Real Estate is a Basic Necessity People need to live somewhere. They need a roof over their head and their children's heads. Like food and clothing we must have a home. People don't need stocks or bonds. Therefore, you can be sure that whether the market is high or low in growth, whether interest rates are up or down, people will be buying, renting, leasing, and selling homes. It is as perennial as the years. This Real Estate Wave Has Been Around Awhile I don't know when you first realized we were in an up market in real estate, but it has been on a solid upward trend for at least the last 3-4 years. It didn't just happen yesterday. Of course like anything else, awareness of the general public is a bit latent, and dependant upon the media. It has only been lately that the media has really focused on it and thrust it onto the front page. The old adage "Success breeds success" is also true. The momentum will grow as other more traditional investors continue to jump on the band wagon and pour their money and resources into real estate investment. It tends to create a perpetual, self-feeding market that is ideal for more seasoned investors. Real Estate is Local and Regional It is true that even in today's real estate boom, there are areas in the United States that are not enjoying the high rates of return that others are experiencing. California is a fantastic place to invest, so is Arizona and a host of other places.But the Rust Belt states are not as fortunate. Watch what happens to Florida home values after this horrendous hurricane season. This is because real estate is driven by the primary capitalistic force of Supply and Demand. Generally speaking, property values increase in areas where the job market is strong, and where there are more people moving into than away from. Of course there are other factors to consider; including interest rates, availability of funding, climate, and governmental policies. These are all important and you must be cognizant of their impacts to your strategy. However, it is true no that matter what the rates are or how nice the climate is, people will continue to migrate where there are abundant job markets and affordable housing. If you can stay just slightly ahead of that migration, you will profit immensely. Real Estate Investing is Diverse You can invest in so many different ways, from foreclosures and fix and flips, to buy and hold and everything in between. Right now the commercial space is relatively soft. It will recover no doubt, but people investing in single family homes are probably doing slightly better in returns. Vacancies are up and rents are down for commercial properties, but fortunately, the forecast is for this sector to improve over the next few years. The key to successful real estate investing is to understand the forces, trends, and conditions that are driving the market. BE AWARE of your surroundings; Read articles and stay on top of industry news; Look in your own area at the job market and forecasts. Check my website www.realestateinvestment.net for all the news and information you need to help you succeed in your real estate investing career. There is no real estate bubble, but there is a real estate wave. Like any dedicated surfer, when the surf's up, get in the water and catch a wave! But watch for danger, be flexible, and be smart. Invest wisely and you can prosper in any real estate market. About The Author Copyright 2004 realestateinvestment.net Michael Setz is an author and the founder of www.realestateinvestment.net - The network for successful real estate investors.
MORE RESOURCES: These are the best and worst cities for first-time homebuyers in New England and beyond, new study says The Boston Globe Blackstone's Wesley LePatner, a mentor to women and real estate investing leader, killed in NYC office shooting Business Insider The real estate market: 5 key themes to watch this week Real Estate News by RealEstateNews.com Real estate: Home prices climb in Martin, Indian River counties; fall in St. Lucie County Treasure Coast News Real Estate Investment Trusts Score Legislative Wins Forvis Mazars US Troy Furbay has been appointed Managing Director, Hospitality at Crescent Real Estate LLC Hospitality Net ‘Walking beside him’: Daughter continues stepfather’s real estate dream Mountain Home Observer Richland County property transfers recorded July 21-24 Mansfield News Journal I-78/I-81 Corridor commercial real estate activity picking up Lehigh Valley Business Double digit price increases for Putnam real estate Mid Hudson News Real Estate Expert Jody Wainio of Buyers Choice Realty Shares Advice on Mortgage Pre-Approvals in HelloNation GlobeNewswire Real estate: Condo prices rise in Indian River County; fall in Martin, St. Lucie counties Treasure Coast News RE/MAX revenue continues to slip despite agent gains Real Estate News by RealEstateNews.com Haag-Brown Commercial Real Estate to open Bentonville office Talk Business & Politics Inside Zillow’s summer launch: 5 new tools built for agents - Real Estate News by RealEstateNews.com Inside Zillow’s summer launch: 5 new tools built for agents Real Estate News by RealEstateNews.com US industrial real estate investor Terreno sells $82m portfolio IPE Real Assets Executive Killed in Manhattan Shooting Was CEO of Blackstone's $53 Billion Real Estate Megafund Realtor.com Top residential real estate sales for July 14-18 in Longboat, Lido, St. Armands, Bird Key Your Observer Real estate transfers: 7/30 Toledo Blade Leading Arizona Real Estate Team JBRE Joins Real Brokerage, Bringing $310M Sales Portfolio Stock Titan Arkansas Commissioner of State Lands to auction more than 700 tax delinquent real estate parcels Thursday Hot Springs Sentinel Record Real Estate Transactions | July 14-18, 2025 Republic-Times Real estate office renovating former daycare The News-Enterprise America's Unhinged Real Estate Market Is Driving Down the Birth Rate Business Insider Atlanta real estate tycoon Tom Cousins has died at 93 Rough Draft Atlanta Inside Hulk Hogan’s $11M Real Estate Empire EntertainmentNow Exclusive: Apple to buy another Silicon Valley campus for $365 million San Francisco Chronicle News | UK commercial real estate investment slips slightly to £10 billion in second quarter - CoStar Ledge Road property in Newport sold for $3.3 million tops latest Newport County sales Newport Daily News Real Estate Giant Anywhere Gives 100,000+ Agents Free Access to Canva Enterprise AI Marketing Platform Stock Titan Christie’s Debuts Crypto Real Estate Division The New York Times Los Angeles Area Wildfires Destroyed Nearly $52 Billion in Homes Last January The World Property Journal Real estate trends highlighted Morrow County Sentinel Alex MacWilliam of Alex MacWilliam Real Estate in Vero Beach Shares Hurricane Preparedness Strategies to Protect Property Investment in HelloNation The Manila Times Asia Pacific commercial real estate investment surges to $31.2b in second quarter 2025 Institutional Real Estate, Inc. Luxury Presence Debuts the First Fully Autonomous AI Marketing Team for Real Estate Agents Business Wire Santa Monica Ranks Second Most Expensive for Rentals as Real Estate Market Shows Mixed Signals Santa Monica Daily Press Easton home on Sierra Drive that sold for over $1M 'epitomizes one-of-a-kind luxury' Enterprise News Population Growth in England and Wales: A Boon for Real Estate and Social Infrastructure Sectors AInvest Slain Blackstone executive was a real estate powerhouse Crain's New York Business Hamptons Real Estate Market Data – Week of 7/22/2025 Hamptons.com Boardwalk Real Estate: Q2 Earnings Snapshot San Antonio Express-News Former Patrizia exec joins Oryx Real Estate Green Street News RealPage buys Rexera, maker of 'AI agents' for real estate deals The Business Journals Judge sides with LGBTQ+ Alliance in battle with ex-CEO Real Estate News by RealEstateNews.com Blackstone’s LePatner killed in NYC shooting Private Equity Real Estate | PERE One of the world’s largest luxury real estate firms wants to help you buy a house — with crypto New York Post |
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